293 DAYS UNTIL ELECTION DAY… 202 DAYS UNTIL THE AUGUST PRIMARY

SOTS PREVIEW — Gov. Jay Nixon will deliver his fourth State of the State address tonight to a joint session of the General Assembly at 7 p.m. Immediately following Nixon’s remarks, Missouri Republicans will broadcast a recorded response from House Majority Leader Tim Jones and State Sen. Kurt Schaefer. 

— The Big Deal: The budget. “Gov. Jay Nixon is likely to lay the groundwork tonight for more state budget cuts as he outlines how he’ll avoid red ink without raising taxes,” wrote Virginia Young in her preview story for the Post-Dispatch: “Nixon, a Democrat, and the Legislature’s Republican budget leaders have agreed to base next year’s budget on projected growth of 3.9 percent, or about $285 million. But that uptick will not be enough to offset the end of federal stimulus money and a reduction in the rate the federal government pays for Medicaid, the health care program for the poor. The budget gap for the year that begins July 1 has been estimated at $500 million. … Many fear the ax will fall on K-12 public schools, higher education and social services. … 

“The only preview of the speech was Nixon’s trip around the state last week to promote an agenda he called Missouri Works, which would train more workers for high-tech careers, recruit automotive suppliers and increase exports. He also has pledged to seek a 2 percent raise for state workers.” 

— #MOSOS12 is tonight’s hashtag, declared @TonyMess. So there.  

BUDGET CAP? — ‘Missouri House to consider state spending cap,’ Virginia Young: “Legislators would wear fiscal handcuffs to control themselves when state coffers are flush under a measure the Missouri House plans to debate this week. The proposal, which would amend the Missouri Constitution, would limit the growth in annual state spending to the inflation rate plus the percentage change in population for Missouri. Any extra revenue would help pay off state debt, cover emergencies or go back to taxpayers as temporary tax cuts. Proponents of the measure argue that legislators have trouble saying ‘no’ and often start expensive programs that prove unaffordable when the economy nose-dives. … Opponents counter that Missouri is a low-tax state and there’s no need to tie legislators’ hands, especially when public schools and other state services are underfunded.” 

#MOSEN — ‘McCaskill denounces critics of energy tour,’ PoliticMo: “Sen. Claire McCaskill, D., on Monday, ended her statewide energy tour in Columbia, meeting with stakeholders at the city’s municipal power plant. On the same day, Missouri Republicans marked the end of her tour with a highly critical editorial in the Springfield News-Leader, where McCaskill visited last week. … McCaskill, who made stops in Kansas City, St. Louis, Springfield, Cape Girardeau, and mid-Missouri, said [criticism that the trip is a campaign tour] is not at all the case. ‘I get that it is an election year and that’s going to be put out there, but I’m honestly trying to do my job,’ McCaskill told reporters after touring the coal plant in Columbia.” … McCaskill also took issue with Republicans’ characterization of her position on energy policy. In his editorial, Cole called McCaskill “a foot soldier in Barack Obama’s war on energy.” McCaskill said she has taken positions at odds with the White House, for example on EPA policy or her support of delaying some carbon dioxide regulations. … McCaskill said from her entire tour, she has heard the top three issues for stakeholders are energy reliability, cost effectiveness, and environmental impact.” http://bit.ly/y3g7Uk

— McCaskill in hardhats… http://bit.ly/zRazJw add that pic to your file.  

SPENCE DEGREE — ‘Spence statements on degree concern conservative group,’ Springfield News-Leader: “A conservative group is proposing an unusual alternative to a debate among the Republican gubernatorial candidates after news St. Louis area businessman David Spence acknowledged that he didn’t accurately state what he studied while attending the University of Missouri-Columbia. … In response to that, the 7th District Missouri Republican Assembly posted a message on its Facebook page suggesting that the candidates hold a baking competition at the annual Lincoln Days gala, an event sponsored by the Missouri Republican Party. … The message also indicated support for Kansas City attorney Bill Randles, a conservative who graduated from Harvard Law School. … The disclosure raises questions about Spence’s character and his approach to government, said Scott Magill, president of the 7th district assembly.… Spence’s campaign pointed to his career as CEO of Alpha Packaging, where he increased the company’s sales from $350,000 in annual sales to $200 million, as an example of how his experience could help the state.” http://sgfnow.co/xDnzVF

GOOD TUESDAY MORNING, and welcome to this lunchtime edition of PoliticMo Rundown. Send your tips, comments, and scoops to eli@politicmo.com. 

SEE YOU IN JEFF CITY — As soon as we finish up here in Columbia today, PoliticMo is on the road to Jefferson City for what could be an interesting night. 

— Here’s what your day looks like, so far: At 2:45 p.m., House Speaker Steven Tilley will hold an avail in his Capitol office. At 6 p.m., State Budget Director Linda Luebberring will provide a Fiscal Year 2013 budget briefing for reporters. At 7 p.m., the Governor will deliver his State of the State address. And immediately following, Republicans will deliver their response. 

IN WASHINGTON, President Obama will welcome the World Series Champion St. Louis Cardinals to the White House. The event will take place at 2:05 p.m., CST. Before their visit, the team will participate in a service event as part of the First Lady’s Joining Forces initiative.  

STATE VISIT — ‘Vilsack to speak on philanthropy before regional foundation,’ News-Press: “Efforts to build up regional quality of life through rural philanthropy lie at the heart of an upcoming visit by U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack to St. Joseph. Mr. Vilsack will be the keynote speaker Jan. 28 at the Community Foundation of Northwest Missouri Inc. annual event. The program is set for 8:30 to 10 a.m. at the Holiday Inn ballroom, 102 S. Third St. … The  regional foundation based in St. Joseph has only existed for two years — but has already succeeded in assembling assets of $11.5 million, according to president and chief executive officer Mary Hinde. … Joining Mr. Vilsack at the event will be Charles W. Fluharty, founder, president emeritus and vice president for policy programs of the Rural Policy Research Institute in Columbia, Mo. The institute is the only national organization of its kind dedicated to assessing rural impacts of public policies.bU.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill will attend and introduce Mr. Vilsack.”http://bit.ly/zzolDo

HAPPY BIRTHDAY Rebecca Berg… 

SOS RACE — ‘Kansas City politician is cash king in race to replace Robin Carnahan,’ Jake Wagman: “Kansas City Democrat Jason Kander may have concerns about the rules governing campaign contributions in Missouri, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have a touch for raising the green. The young state representative from across the state has, thanks to a fundraising blitz to close out 2011, captured early momentum in his bid to replace Robin Carnahan as Missouri Secretary of State. When the campaign quarter began, Kander already was in a solid position with about $233,000 in the bank. But he raised almost an identical amount in the last three months of the year, almost doubling his cash on hand to $442,000. … Kander has proposed reinstating caps on campaign contributions, but he did receive several large checks, including one for $10,000 from Attorney General Chris Koster’s old law firm in Kansas City. However, most of the more than 380 donations Kander received during the quarter were for $500 or less.” 

WHERE IN THE WORLD — ‘Carnahan confident the Missouri Supreme Court will rescue his district,’ Beacon: “U.S. Rep. Russ Carnahan, D-St. Louis, says the Missouri Supreme Court is ‘the closest thing to a level playing field’ in his continued fight to resurrect his congressional district, which was dismantled last spring by the Missouri General Assembly. Carnahan said in an interview Monday night that he was optimistic that the court will toss out the new congressional-district map and order a new one drawn up. The congressman said he listened to last Thursday’s court hearing on the internet.”   http://bit.ly/Ab9WI7

MISSOURI CAUCUSES — ‘Bond reaffirms preference for presidential primaries over caucuses,’ from Robert Koenig and Jo Mannies in the St. Louis Beacon: “Before leaving on his trade trip to Indonesia, former Sen. Christopher ‘Kit’ Bond, R-Mo., reinforced his view that binding presidential primaries are preferable to caucuses. … ‘Primaries ought to be binding,’ said Bond in an interview. Such comments appear to be Bond’s first public observations on the matter since the Missouri Republican Party decided last fall to use a caucus system, beginning in March, to award delegates to the presidential contenders. … 

“Bond hasn’t been a fan of a caucus system since 1996, when he headed up the Missouri contingent for presumed Republican favorite (and eventual presidential nominee) Bob Dole.  But social-conservative supporters of renegade challengers Pat Buchanan and Alan Keyes packed many Missouri caucus sites that year and snagged a significant share of delegates. An angry Bond declared on television at the time that Missouri should stick with a presidential primary. He subsequently helped influence the bipartisan decisions to hold state presidential preference primaries in 2000, 2004 and 2008.” 

ECON PREVIEW — ‘Economy’s out of immediate danger, but expect slow going in 2012, says Fed economist,’ St. Louis Beacon: “Come June, the Great Recession will have officially been over for three years, but the nation’s housing hangover looks like it’s going to linger for a spell. Some recently reported symptoms: [1] U.S. home prices fell for the second straight month in October, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index released in December. … [2] Year-to-date home sales were down 4 percent in St. Louis in November compared to the same period in 2010, according to the Federal Reserve’s Jan. 11 Beige Book. [3]  Foreclosures nationwide dropped significantly in 2011, but the reason was the ‘dysfunctional’ process. … 

“If there is a bright spot, it might be in the market differentiations that are beginning to show up — a shift from 2008 when house prices were down across the board, says economist William Emmons of the St. Louis Federal Reserve. … Emmons cites a combination of reasons for these differences: The degree of the housing bust varied geographically, and the length of the foreclosure process differs widely in judicial and nonjudicial states. In general, the foreclosure process is longer in judicial states, such as Illinois, that require court action to foreclose on a home. Missouri is a nonjudicial state. …

“The housing boom and bust were tempered in St. Louis, Emmons said, but he believes a long-term regional effect will be the slowing — or even reversal — of urban sprawl. … The housing bust initially harmed economically disadvantaged communities in St. Louis that were already vulnerable before the bubble burst. But middle-income communities in outlying counties have also seen the bottoms fall out of their markets, as buyers grow increasingly unwilling to drive long distances to buy bigger homes for their bucks. And home prices have also come down in communities closer to the urban center.”  http://bit.ly/yTqWwR

REP. BILLY LONG inked an op-ed in POLITICO over night about his frustration with the pace of Washington: “I came into office on a wave of public approval for the ideas that I ran on: smaller government, lower taxes and more liberty. We had a mandate to control spending. Unfortunately, I think everyone, including myself, underestimated how dysfunctional our government has become. … I might have run as the fed-up candidate, but I was hopeful that, with a little bit of wit and will, common sense could prevail. But the realities of not having a Republican-controlled Senate or White House slapped me in the face. … With a new majority in the House and the backing of the public, I thought we could start making some much needed reforms. I quickly realized, however, that Harry Reid’s Senate was going to stand in the way of the House and the public. We passed dozens of bills — 28 on creating new jobs alone — but the Senate did nothing. I felt terrible each week as I made the trip back to Southwest Missouri with nothing to report but more roadblocks from the Senate. The White House, of course, could have intervened with its Senate allies to get things moving, but President Barack Obama is just as worried about getting reelected and just as happy to stop the progress of the House. … 

“I’ve learned that changing the way things are done in a fundamentally flawed Congress isn’t easy. Democracy is inherently messy. But as a wiser second-year congressman, I know that I must work even harder if anything is going to change.” http://bit.ly/AvBenw