315 DAYS UNTIL ELECTION DAY… 224 DAYS UNTIL THE AUGUST PRIMARY 

BACK TO IT — Welcome back from your Christmas break. In just over a week, the General Assembly is back in session, and it will officially be 2012. Hope you had a good Christmas break. 

AD WARS — ‘Red Missouri may lose advertising green in presidential race,’ KC Star: “Missouri television viewers accustomed to enduring hundreds of 30-second political ads in presidential election years may get a welcome break in 2012. And the state’s broadcasters may suffer financially. Consultants in both parties say it’s increasingly possible the two major party presidential candidates will not campaign heavily in the Show-Me State next fall. After nearly a century as a so-called ‘bellwether’ state whose votes reflected national trends, Missouri is now believed to lean Republican, at least on the presidential level, regardless of the candidates.  … 

“However, some area broadcasters remain optimistic. They think the two major candidates will decide to compete in Missouri, and that outside groups — PACs, super PACs, and party committees — also will commit to spending in the state. … Political ad spending on Missouri television stations also will be bolstered by a competitive Senate race between incumbent Democrat Sen. Claire McCaskill and a Republican challenger, who will be picked in a potentially expensive primary in August. Gov. Jay Nixon also is running for re-election, and a costly campaign over swapping the state’s income tax for a sales tax levy may also end up on the ballot, further boosting political ad sales. 

“Missouri has been uncharacteristically missing from many lists of 2012 battleground states. The state has voted for the GOP nominee in the last three presidential election cycles. Sen. John McCain won a narrow victory over Obama in Missouri in 2008, even though the Arizona Republican lost the national popular vote by about 7 percent. A generic presidential Republican candidate, consultants said, now enjoys a 3 percent or 4 percent advantage in the state. And because of slow population growth, Missouri has lost one of its presidential electors, making it less valuable as a presidential state for both parties. … [T]he state’s presidential competitiveness may also depend on the eventual Republican nominee.” http://bit.ly/v2uVNu

— Adding insult to injury, from Jeff Roe: “Missouri starts looking a lot more like Kansas.” 

BIG BUCKS —  ‘Sinquefield political contributions top $17 million,’ St. Louis Business Journal: “Since retiring in 2005 from Dimension Fund Advisors… [Rex Sinquefield] has given more than $50 million to charitable and conservative political causes — and that number does not include charitable contributions from his family. … Since 2003, which is the furthest back information is available from the Missouri Ethics Commission, Sinquefield has given more than $17 million to various campaign committees. His first contribution, $1,175, went to the committee Holden for Governor. Last year he gave $1.3 million to Let Voters Decide, an organization working to eliminate Missouri’s income tax, in addition to an additional $11.7 million to various other committees. … To read more about the Sinquefields’ political and charitable gifts, check out the front page of this week’s Business Journal.” http://bit.ly/tG8Vlv

WHAT THE NiXON CAMP IS READING — ‘Nixon’s favorables still strong,’ Drebes’ Missouri Scout: “With a recently named opponent – one he wasn’t expecting – Jay Nixon has begun gearing up his campaign for 2012. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters in the survey rated Jay Nixon favorably, while 41% rated him unfavorably. That gives Nixon a ‘net positive’ rating of 18%; fairly strong in this purple-colored state. Voters in all gender and age brackets give Nixon a net positive rating. He gets a big boost from Democrats, but even Republicans rate him slightly more favorable than unfavorable. The only demographic where Nixon’s unfavorable outweigh favorable was among Independent voters.” http://bit.ly/vpEMrv

GOOD MONDAY MORNING, and welcome to this post-holiday weekend edition of PoliticMo Rundown. Send your tips, comments, and scoops to eli@politicmo.com. 

WE’RE FINALIZING OUR TOP 5 LIST — Continue to send your ideas to eli@politicmo.com. 

HAPPY BIRTHDAY Lucas Case… State Rep. Stanley Cox… State Rep. Todd Richardson. 

GOP PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY — ‘Blunt only GOP Missouri lawmaker to offer endorsement,’ Springfield News-Leader: “Even as others declare their allegiances, the three Republican members of Congress from southwest Missouri have not publicly picked a favorite among the seven GOP candidates vying for the White House. The exception, of course, is Sen. Roy Blunt, an early and active backer of ex-Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. The Springfield Republican and freshman senator announced in September that he was not only endorsing Romney but would also spearhead the candidate’s effort to round up additional congressional support. … 

“The stay-on-the-sidelines strategy from Long, Hartzler, and Emerson comes as more and more House and Senate members are lining up behind one candidate or another. … Neither Long nor Emerson would directly say whether Blunt had pressed them to back Romney.” http://sgfnow.co/sLqa7l

— Definitely a misleading headline. While Missouri Republicans have certainly been quiet, Sen. Blunt isn’t the only GOP Missouri lawmaker to endorse. U.S. Rep. Sam Graves, R-Kansas City, announced his support for Texas Governor Rick Perry earlier this year.

A BRUNNER OP-ED in the Springfield News-Leader over the weekend was essentially a bio piece, introducing SWMO readers to his history in business in St. Louis: “Unfortunately, while I led a company that manufactured products, the politicians in Washington have been manufacturing debt, waste and red tape and spending away our future. I came to realize that too many career politicians, with political experience alone, are unable to restore the American dream. With no real-world experience to guide them, they have no answers and have lost their way. … We need tested, proven, citizen leaders, with the fortitude to break down the massive barriers of big government, close down the deficit spending and eliminate red-tape regulations. With the right leadership, courage and determination, we can restore hope and confidence to get the American dream back on course.” http://sgfnow.co/urzvSl

CAYMAN CHRISTMAS — ‘Brunner’s holiday trip to Caymans becomes campaign fodder,’ News-Leader: “Missouri Democrats saw an early Christmas present in [last] week’s media reports that John Brunner, the St. Louis businessman and GOP Senate hopeful, would be heading to the Cayman Islands for the holidays. … The revelation sparked some digging at the Missouri Democratic Party, where they discovered Brunner is on the board of a Caymans-based charity… which helps teenagers and young adults with disabilities gain self-esteem and independence through a Scuba diving program. Records show Brunner donated $30,000 to the group from 2008 through 2010. Normally, involvement with a charity might be seen as a nice resume line for a politician. But Democrats say Brunner’s involvement in Stay-Focused Inc., shows that he has deep ties to the Caribbean island, which is a tax haven and well as a tourist destination.” http://bit.ly/tCyiYe

— MDP’s Caitlin Legacki: “Riddle me this: Why is it easier for John Brunner to get rid of loyal employees than it is for him to unload his Cayman retreat? … You just have to wonder how many people would still be working this Christmas if he was willing to make that relatively small sacrifice.”

— Brunner spokesman John Hancock: “John Brunner is proud of his work with this amazing charity but has never sought to draw attention to his numerous charitable endeavors. Only Claire McCaskill and her liberal Scrooges would think it is a good idea to attack a charity that helps disabled children the day before Christmas Eve.  Merry Christmas, Claire!”

EDITORIAL — Post-Dispatch editorial: ‘A take on the gifts Missouri politicians might want to return’: “These would be the missteps and misstatements that would have been better — for the politicians, at least — left unwrapped. … (1) Peter Kinder: Missouri’s Republican lieutenant governor was the gift that kept on giving this year. He left his keys in the his car and two hoodlums stole it, set it on fire and rammed it into an ammo shop. He was caught having spent tens of thousands of taxpayer dollars on fancy hotel rooms in St. Louis when he really wasn’t on state business. That was… not as grievous a wound as his admission that as a state senator he frequented East St. Louis strip clubs, and that he just happened to have been photographed with his favorite former dancer while having a glass of wine one afternoon at a south St. Louis ‘pantsless’ bar he blundered into while looking for a bathroom. …

(2) Charlie Dooley: The St. Louis County Executive fumbled his budget pitch badly in 2011, changing numbers willy-nilly, suggesting raises, then a tax increase, then park closings and layoffs. … (3) Brian Nieves, Jim Lembke, Rob Schaaf and Will Kraus: The Four Senators of the Apocalypse combined to help create one of the strangest legislative years in recent Missouri history. These four Republicans helped block local control for St. Louis police, tilted at imaginary federal windmills and, most infamously, stood between Missouri unemployed workers and already promised federal aid. …

(4) Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo.: ‘I have convinced my husband to sell the damn plane.’ Need a gift receipt? (5) Steve Tilley and Rob Mayer: When they got news that Gov. Jay Nixon had agreed to a special session to pass a jobs bill, the two Republican legislative leaders rushed out on their own cross-state tour to beat the Democratic governor to the punch. Then Mr. Tilley double-crossed Mr. Mayer while Mr. Mayer battled to control his own caucus. The jobs bill got lost in the mail. … (6) Mr. Nixon: The governor actually had a decent political year. But he did trip over himself a few times. For example, trying to distance himself from the disastrous Mamtek economic development deal in Moberly …  Mr. Nixon said, ‘I do not run the Department of Economic Development.’” http://bit.ly/rTIkvl

SPORTZ — ‘Missouri will show its SEC credentials in Independence Bowl,’ KC Star: “[T]oday’s Independence Bowl game against North Carolina is more than simply another trip to Shreveport. As a full-color half-page advertisement in the Shreveport Times trumpeted on Friday, these aren’t the Big 12 Conference’s old Missouri Tigers. On display in Shreveport — and across the nation for those parked in front of their televisions sets for a 4 p.m. kickoff today — will be the Southeastern Conference’s Missouri Tigers.The advertisement, courtesy of the LSU Publications Office, shows Truman the Tiger’s newest step-brother — Louisiana State’s Mike the Tiger — holding up the SEC welcome mat… In that sense, today’s game is as much a showcase as it is a showdown.”  http://bit.ly/uK4ExT

— Huff Po: “The Tar Heels endured more than their share of turmoil this season under interim head coach Everett Withers, who took over in July after Butch Davis was fired shortly before preseason camp in the shadow of an NCAA investigation. … Coaching stability isn’t a problem at Missouri (7-5), where Pinkel is wrapping up his 11th season with a program-record seventh consecutive bowl appearance… Both are talented teams that have experienced bouts of success and failure. Missouri started the season with a 4-5 record before consecutive wins over Texas, Texas Tech and Kansas earned them the right to go to the Independence Bowl. … North Carolina started the season 5-1, but stumbled down the stretch, losing four of the last six to finish with a 3-5 ACC record.” http://huff.to/rONYa1