320 DAYS UNTIL ELECTION DAY… 229 DAYS UNTIL THE AUGUST PRIMARY 

WHERE IN THE WORLD IS RUSS CARNAHAN RUNNING — Former Carnahan primary opponent  (and State Sen. and MO. political observer) Jeff Smith says he thinks Carnahan should primary Lacy Clay and run in the first congressional district. Smith thinks the race could have racial undertones, but would be the best shot for Carnahan, seeing how his new district leans heavily Republican: “In 2004, he ran in a 10-way primary for ex-House Leader Dick Gephardt’s seat and won by 1.6%. (Disclosure: I finished second, and six years later went to federal prison after lying to the government during an FEC investigation stemming from a Carnahan complaint.) In 2010, in a district Obama carried by 20 points, he edged Tea Party favorite Ed Martin 49-47. None of those election results was determined until the wee hours of the morning. But in 2011, Congressman Carnahan’s luck ran out. … 

“Currently, Carnahan is supporting a lawsuit which alleges that the [new] map illegally splits various ‘communities of interest.’ The suit is unlikely to succeed, but even if it does, the Republican Legislature will redraw it in a way that narrowly remedies the Court’s issues and again targets Carnahan’s district. So Carnahan shouldn’t put too many eggs in his legal basket. Instead, he should be raising money and canvassing the new 1st CD. Because, as I wrote months ago, his best chance of returning to Congress is not in the 2nd CD, where the Democratic Congressional leadership (and surely the CBC) have encouraged him to run. … 

“Let’s start by assuming that, as in most recent St. Louis elections between a white and a black candidate, voting splits along racial lines. … Assuming 90% of district blacks and 65% of whites lean Democratic - appropriate given the terrain - it would mean approximately 234K black Democrats and 183K white Democrats. … [A]s someone who represented a majority-black state Senate district fully contained within the new 1st CD, I can vouch for black district voters’ willingness to vote for white candidates who address issues they care about. Overall, there won’t be many crossover votes; each family has been prominent for five decades, so most voters possess accurate information regarding the candidates’ racial identities. Given the factors described above, I estimate Clay gets 10% of the white vote in the primary (optimistic), and Carnahan gets 15% of the black vote (a conservative estimate). That would leave Carnahan with a narrow 48K-45K vote victory. Finally, Clay is a weak fundraiser who even in the run-up to a potential 2012 challenge has in some quarters failed to raise $100K. … 

“That’s not to say it will be easy for Carnahan. … Instead, given both candidates’ limited crossover appeal, observers should prepare for a racially polarizing campaign in the long, sad tradition of St. Louis politics. For Clay to win, he’ll need to mobilize blacks around the idea that the 1st CD has been represented by an African-American since 1968 and that a Carnahan victory would be a step backwards. Meanwhile, Carnahan will need to perform a delicate racial and ideological balancing act: appealing to the conservative, ethnic, old-school Democrats in South City who will be less than thrilled about the prospect of Clay as their Congressman, but not in such a way that he turns off blacks or white progressives in gentrifying city neighborhoods and affluent inner-ring suburbs.” http://bit.ly/w3lzyu

WHAT THE NIXON CAMP IS READING — ‘Unemployment numbers shrink again,’ MissouriNet: “The Federal Labor Department says unemployment is down again in Missouri to 8.2 percent in November. That’s down from 8.5 percent in October. In November 2010, unemployment in Missouri was 9.6 percent. A person is not considered in those numbers if the person is not actively looking for a job. The Labor department says non-farm employment shrank by three-thousand in November.” http://bit.ly/sJESxs

BIG BUCKS — ‘Sinquefield donates $130,000 to state House GOP leaders,’ Jo Mannies: “Wealthy financier Rex Sinquefield, who has been putting much of his money lately into promoting causes over candidates, changed course this week. He has written a check for $100,000 to the state House Republican Campaign Committee and another one for $30,000 to House speaker designate Tim Jones, (left) R-Eureka. What’s unclear is if the money is related to two causes close to Sinquefield’s heart and pocketbook — initiative petitions that call for: [1] Replacing Missouri’s income tax with a higher sales tax; [2, or] Ending state control of the St. Louis police department.” http://bit.ly/tVOk28

REENGAGING —  ‘Amendment 2 opponents seek to re-engage in battle in 2012,’ Jo Mannies: “[Missouri Roundtable for Life] on Wednesday filed a proposed initiative petition with the secretary of state’s office that would change the amendment’s definition of human cloning.  If approved, such wording would outlaw some forms of stem-cell research now allowed in the state. Assuming that their initiative-petition proposal is approved for circulation, the Roundtable would need to collect roughly 160,000 signatures of Missouri registered voters in order to get it on the 2012 ballot.” http://bit.ly/vCs3Gq

— FIRST IN POLITICMO: State Rep. Dave Hinson, R-Franklin County, will be filing a resolution to amend the state constitution, with a similar resolution that the anti-abortion groups are filing. They are all reengaging after the successful passage of MOSIRA this fall.  

GOOD THURSDAY MORNING, and welcome to PoliticMo Rundown. Send your tips, comments, and scoops to eli@politicmo.com. 

THREE DAYS UNTIL CHRISTMAS… 

GOV. JAY NIXON will be in Wright City this morning to detail growth in the Missouri manufacturing industry. In the afternoon, Nixon will visit Zoltek Companies in St. Charles and Graphic Packaging in Pacific to encourage the “Show-Me Heroes” veterans hiring program. 

JOPLIN RECOVERY — Officials from the USDA will host an open press meeting in Joplin today to discuss the use of recently approved USDA-Rural Development funds for recovery. 

YOU SHOULD WATCH THIS — American Traffic Solutions, the company behind red light cameras, published a video of some crashes in Missouri due to drivers running red lights. VIDEO: http://bit.ly/t0MIF7

EDUCATION — ‘Mayor Sly James ready to push his plan for control of KC schools,’ KC Star: “Mayor Sly James said he has decided: He is bound for Jefferson City to push a plan with lawmakers to give him control of the Kansas City Public Schools. He announced his decision Wednesday night before about 100 invited people at Union Station, saying it was the best way to help ensure a Kansas City school district survives, spokesman Danny Rotert said. … The mayor’s move came as a surprise to some of the guests who expected more discussion throughout the community before the mayor so firmly set his course. … 

“James wants the authority to appoint the top executives to run the district — a chief executive officer, chief academic officer and chief business officer. He would expect to be able to find local executives to put in those posts. He also described a plan to have an appointed advisory board — something he has added since he first offered a mayoral-control proposal to Missouri Education Commissioner Chris Nicastro Dec. 1. A group of stakeholders would be involved in providing a list of nominees, and the mayor would choose what could be a five-member panel.” http://bit.ly/s5wKpU

CLEANING THE CRIMINAL CODE — ‘Missouri’s criminal code could get much-needed overhaul,’ Josh Nelson: “Lawyers in southwest Missouri are welcoming a proposal from state Sen. Jack Goodman, R-Mount Vernon, to overhaul the state’s criminal laws. If approved, Goodman’s bill will create a committee charged with updating a set of laws defining crimes and punishments, collectively referred to as the criminal code, for the first time in 30 years. Attorneys say the laws now don’t reflect current criminal justice issues like the ongoing drug problems or identity theft. And some offenses are harder to find because they’ve been attached to laws that do not regulate criminal justice. … 

“Revising the criminal code is one of several recommendations from a working group headed up by Chief Justice William Ray Price that examined sentencing and corrections changes. Goodman was a member of Price’s group. The group presented its findings to lawmakers earlier this month in a hearing and in a report released to the public. The working group said the criminal code has grown ‘too large and inconsistent.’ Members also said a model set of criminal laws drafted by the Missouri Bar Association would be a good starting place for the revision committee. … The bar’s proposal clears up certain parts of the law that have been clouded by years of amendments by lawmakers, like how much damage from a vandalism counts as a felony or what constitutes first-degree assault.” http://sgfnow.co/vwBEJg

— And this, from the Post-Dispatch Editorial Board, ‘Not every act of stupidity needs to be in Missouri criminal code’: “It’s rare that we write something in this space with which nearly everybody can agree. But in the spirit of the holidays, let’s try. Can we stipulate that texting while driving is monumentally stupid? Yes, plenty of us have done it. We’ve also talked on our cell phones while driving, fiddled with the radio station, shaved, applied makeup, read maps, picked up the toy our child dropped in the back seat and done any number of other truly distracting things while driving. We know it’s unsafe. … 

“So should we all be in jail? That’s the question Missouri lawmakers … will debate … following a recommendation by the National Transportation Safety Board to outlaw texting while driving. The very fact that the federal government has recommended a ban will be anathema to Missouri Republicans who have elevated the 10th Amendment to the altar of holiness.

On this basis alone, we seriously doubt the Missouri Legislature will expand the existing ban on texting and driving in Missouri. … But as they discuss the topic, we hope they ask themselves a broader question about various laws in Missouri. … For the code to make sense for all elements of the judicial system, it should offer clarity about specific crimes. Punishments should fit the crime. A bipartisan committee of lawmakers and legal experts should rewrite the code and lawmakers should pass it.

Being smart on crime beats being tough on crime.” http://bit.ly/uhmXmH 

CHRISTMAS — The KC Star’s Barb Shelly criticized Rep. Vicky Hartzler, R-Harrisonville, for her opposition to bipartisan House Rules preventing lawmakers from using specific holiday phrases like “merry Christmas” or “happy Hanukkah.” “[T]his shouldn’t be a big deal. I’d prefer members of Congress respect that not all Americans share the same religion, or celebrate the same holidays. On the other hand, Christmas as a season has gotten so big that a ‘merry Christmas’ wish isn’t really offensive. Here’s the bigger issue: Members of Congress generally use end-of-the-year holiday greetings to send mailings or e-mails bragging about their accomplishments (I know…like, what accomplishments?), or repeating their tired political talking points. Why should they be able to use taxpayer money to say merry Christmas, happy holidays or whatever? Frankly, after the year Congress has had, the less we hear from any of them, the better.” http://bit.ly/w1pjSh

SECURITY — ‘Nixon defends need for state homeland security chief,’ Missouri News-Horizon: “Gov. Jay Nixon unveiled Missouri’s new homeland security director on Wednesday, insisting that the position is still a vital part of the state’s disaster prevention and response team. … Nixon defended having the positions of homeland security coordinator – a mandate from the federal government – saying the position helps facilitate more effective training and communication between law enforcement agencies. ‘The threat still exist, it’s a dangerous world,’ Nixon said, adding, ‘This position and the authority in it is a valuable part of the public safety, law enforcement response team.’”

SPORTZZZZ — TONIGHT: ‘Missouri strong test for Illinois,’ Chicago Tribune: “No. 25 Illinois (11-1) is the obvious underdog against No. 9 Missouri (11-0) despite having just one more loss. Missouri is a veteran squad that has adapted well in the first season of new coach Frank Haith, dismantling opponents by 27.7 points per game including a 29-point victory over Notre Dame, 39 points over California and 10 points over Villanova. Meanwhile, Illinois has squeaked by some suspect opponents: They only beat St. Bonaventure by five points and Cornell by four.” http://trib.in/vKo21J

— MONDAY: ‘Tigers, Tar Heels take opposite paths to Independence Bowl,’ Maneater: “Missouri’s Dec. 26 date with the Independence Bowl represents a unique ending to the program’s trek through the Big 12. Not even on the list of Big 12 bowl tie-ins, the Independence Bowl has become Missouri’s home away from home in a conference consistently lacking market appeal. The site was where Pinkel’s rebuilding project first gained traction, and now will serve as his program’s final break on the path to SEC membership. Not to be lost in the Missouri headlines is the role of North Carolina (7-5, 3-5 Atlantic Coast Conference) in the 2011 Independence Bowl. Despite actually holding a conference tie-in to the game, the 2011 trip will be the Tar Heels’ first to the venue. It’s a welcome opportunity for a program recently scarred by NCAA penalties. … The game will serve as a finale for both teams. As Missouri waves good-bye to the Big 12, North Carolina will bid its farewell to [Everett] Withers. Both will look to end such tenures with an eighth victory of the season. The paths to new beginnings will unfold Dec. 26 in Shreveport.” http://bit.ly/rK2FtP